Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 4.632326 5.516209 6.496418 7.660294 9.000584 10.491557 12.271436
2025-04-06 3.231124 4.388710 5.818632 7.696944 10.079195 12.978195 16.748504
2025-04-13 2.356662 3.595245 5.275161 7.677815 10.975740 15.286931 21.280898
2025-04-20 1.961625 3.300686 5.263439 8.270957 12.665772 18.738860 27.622668
2025-04-27 1.595883 2.942154 5.061314 8.516343 13.851894 21.588867 33.409304
2025-05-04 1.341193 2.687667 4.947696 8.840111 15.146742 24.676919 39.781844
2025-05-11 1.090596 2.374131 4.668388 8.834040 15.897701 26.991760 45.183290
2025-05-18 0.855546 2.027126 4.258570 8.528253 16.097864 28.437788 49.340076
2025-05-25 0.661034 1.707071 3.830307 8.108336 16.027722 29.407431 52.780639
2025-06-01 0.542004 1.514545 3.605439 8.016401 16.497439 31.277104 57.789380
2025-06-08 0.445780 1.346927 3.396412 7.915812 16.924701 33.089434 62.813457
2025-06-15 0.407728 1.311594 3.460897 8.367406 18.424820 36.879486 71.460252
2025-06-22 0.349289 1.209906 3.365614 8.487302 19.325804 39.724408 78.767521
2025-06-29 0.294251 1.101233 3.234026 8.511640 20.044478 42.306396 85.822142
2025-07-06 0.246018 0.996486 3.090204 8.485156 20.652912 44.727982 92.757953
2025-07-13 0.233554 1.001390 3.227593 9.129525 22.737004 50.124763 105.535756
2025-07-20 0.207307 0.951333 3.208777 9.395991 24.030013 54.069565 115.831492
2025-07-27 0.187241 0.916304 3.224374 9.748161 25.543955 58.555661 127.426523
2025-08-03 0.159123 0.840161 3.105818 9.741449 26.244574 61.445714 136.107126
2025-08-10 0.127435 0.735410 2.877041 9.408538 26.151222 62.688531 141.621416
2025-08-17 0.099099 0.630162 2.619264 8.951193 25.704389 63.142691 145.571709
2025-08-24 0.082539 0.570644 2.496508 8.851026 26.110930 65.441883 153.392786
2025-08-31 0.068565 0.516260 2.377491 8.741419 26.478921 67.676785 161.203880